While the markets are still very focused on the battle with inflation, a new problem is going to emerge in 2023 that is going to take its place. The markets have experienced a relief rally in November and December but we expect the rally to fade quickly going into 2023.
I’m writing this article on December 15 2022 and this week, we received the inflation reading for November and the Fed’s 0.50% interest rate hike. Headline CPI, the primary measure of inflation, dropped from 7.7% in October to 7.1% in November which is a meaningful decline, most likely signaling that peak inflation is behind us. So why such a grim outlook for 2023? One word……History. If you look at the historical trends of meaningful economic indicators and compare them what the data is telling us now, the message to us is it will be nothing short of a Christmas miracle for the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2023.
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